George needs a favor... he screwed up and won't stop moaning about it...

Dear Roaster,

This is the real George Noble today...

I know the byline still says "James C Early." (And after those last few tutorial emails, it's not too Early for you to C why James is such a wonderful guy.)

Yeah, I know it's kind of screwy.

But I've just got something to get off my chest today that can't wait until Friday at 12:12 EST. And the heck if I want to bother figuring out how this website works to change today's message into my name.

Plus I'm quite busy getting ready for my show. So I'm just going to steal his keyboard here because it's faster.

And seeing that I'm about to do something very risky and vulnerable for you right now...

... that no fund manager or "investing legend" in his right mind would ever do.

I need you to do 1 small thing for me

What is it?

I need you to mark your calendar so you don't miss the show, by clicking one of these links below.

Whichever is relevant to you. Again, I don't pretend to be any sort of web publishing expert. (Even though I swear I must be the oldest geezer regularly posting to Twitter/X.)

So pick your poison.

Here's Google... Yahoo... Outlook... does anyone still use AOL?... and this one is supposed to work for "none of the above."

Alright.

On to the moaning...

I screwed up so, so bad.

My exchange traded fund, Noble Absolute Return (ETF: NOPE) was an unmitigated disaster. I think it lost 59%, but who's counting.

See I've taken this one, huge, humiliating public loss in my career. And I'm not scared to admit it.

In fact given the level of commitment you've showed to preparing for my new event, I think it's only fair to share more than I ever have about my biggest mistake. Not just in this email today, but at my Holiday Roast if that's of interest to you as well.

Because James has made some worthy efforts to fill in all the gaps in my resume.

From my apprenticeship with Peter Lynch, to my own top-performing Fidelity mutual fund, to my long/short fund at Gryfalcon, to my hedge fund at Teton Partners, to my charity work, to my family office...

... to my newer hobby of throwing righteous mud at everyone from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, to Mad Money star Jim Cramer, to ARK Invest manager Cathy Wood on Twitter/X. By the way, if you happen to be in a boardroom with the CEO of OpenDoor, see if you can get him to sit on a whoopie cushion. I'd be most grateful.

(This is what the Zoomers call "punching up." I grew up on the mean streets of New Jersey, and I'm not here to bully little guys like you.)

But NOPE sticks out like a sore thumb.

And there's an important lesson for both you & me in this, which relates to today's prescribed topic:

Let Them Eat Stock: Why the Ticker Will Never Be the Product

Wait, hold on. We're being interrupted by the peanut gallery.

OK enough, enough.

It's cute how you want to defend my honor, James. But it wasn't Michael Burry who blew up my ETF. And it wasn't me who got played by Christian Bale in a Hollywood movie. I'm obviously too handsome for that.

I'll leave aside The Everything Bubble today... we covered this with our "blood in the centrifuge" topic... you can still win with specific stocks even if a lot of others, or nearly all others, are mis-priced. And we'll get back to that same idea again in your final tutorial email, and of course at the Roast.

But yeah, let's talk specifically about Tesla. Because that's what really did blow my ETF up.

Yes, it's true that a properly executed short depends on favorable timing even if the thesis is correct.

But I will admit, that in my entire career, I've never seen a case quite like this.

Elon Musk truly is a genius.

Certainly not as an expert in electric cars, rocket ships, messaging websites, or robotics – he pays the guys who take care of that. And certainly not as a budget hawk – what ever happened to "The Department of Government Efficiency, and on a related note, whatever happened to all those government lawsuits against his companies?

But Elon didn't exactly fall off a turnip truck. (In fact, I believe he literally grew up in his daddy's emerald mine.)

He's a genius at ONE of the skills that all CEO's have always needed:

Selling the story.

In fact, he's so good at it that the newest story is... he's soon to be a trillionaire. Not sure if this is meant to happen before or after he also goes to Mars. I'm sure the details will be ironed out later. (There's so much iron on Mars. Duh, that's why it's red.)

But in case you didn't notice, we're living in a "post-truth" society these days.

A radical shift that probably hasn't happened since the printing press was invented 500 years ago. And before that, since writing itself was first invented 5,000 years ago.

When a new form of communications technology like the Internet hits, all the old experts get thrown to the curb.

And overall, that's a good thing!

Institutions like Wall Street, Silicon Valley, Big Pharma, Hollywood, Big Government, etc. really are hopelessly corrupt.

Just like the church was in Medieval Europe. Just like ancient Athens was when they killed Socrates. And so on. I mean for god sakes, there really is a private island of billionaire pedophiles.

So it's probably better for us to just throw out all this bathwater.

But the baby that also goes out here is... the idea of truth itself.

And to paraphrase Fyodor Dostoevsky. Or William S Burroughs. Or a video game that James' teenager probably plays:

If nothing is true, everything is permitted.

And we're far past "if" at this point.

So it doesn't matter if it's been 5 years since we were just 3 years away from self-driving.

Because now we're just 3 years away from robotaxis. Or whatever the story is today.

And THAT'S what it means when this particular baby (the company's actual competitive position and future earnings potential) gets thrown out, and we all start chugging its rose-scented bathwater (the stock price) in our effort to drain the tub, or the swamp, as fast as we can.

Much like the Emperor's New Clothes, nobody really believes the stock price is the company.

But they believe that somebody else believes it, and of course somebody else believes that everybody else believes it, which leads us to a Greater Fool game.

(I.e. "hot potato.")

I mean, who even cares about capitalism anymore? Why should it matter that investments chase growth that fulfills human desire and potential?

Sounds like a tedious game for nerds like James Early. Instead, I join the glorious choir of the holy synod of CNBC and sing along:

"Let Them Eat Stock"

I'm being sarcastic, of course. And I'll continue my thoughts on Mr. Musk at the Roast.

He did really get me that once. But in the long run, everyone gets got. Even him.

It's already happening to many of his imitators. (Albeit none as talented at selling the story as him.)

Remember these guys?

Well, let's just say I'm not wrong every time!

See the problem is that if the company really is the stock, then what happens when the stock goes down? It's curtains.

And of course, this hot potato game isn't limited to electric vehicles.

In fact:

It would probably be fair to argue that "selling the story" has become re-normalized as not just the #1 skill a CEO needs. But the only skill he or she needs.

And whether you're investing long or short, that's just the basic challenge and ground condition that's built into the stock market today.

Can we still win under these new conditions?

Of course! Just not every time.

(I plan to show you how at the Roast, and in the coming months thereafter.)

But that's the same as it ever was, which is good enough for me.

Because I'd rather actually have enough money and enough success, and enough good friends like you... than almost-but-not-quite-yet be the only trillionaire on Mars.

I'll hand James his keyboard back. And you'll continue with him tomorrow for:

A Fresh Barrel of Snakes: Wall Street’s Favorite New Accounting Scams

But meanwhile, this Roast is getting nice and hot, people...

Be there. Click one of those calendar links to make sure you'll be there.

Or you'll get me moaning all over again.

P.S. If you're hunting around for them in your email box, here's #0... #1... #2... #3... and #4 in our series.