George's 3 Smart Stocks for a Happy New Year

Dear Roaster,

You probably know the big surprise by now... George Noble actually gave us three stock ideas at his "holiday roast" last week. Instead of just one.

As promised, here's a more expansive report on what he discussed with James Early...

Interview Recap

Noble emphasized that the market is not the economy. History shows there is always a reason to be pessimistic — wars, crises, inflation scares, political shocks — yet markets repeatedly recover. Betting on collapse is rarely a winning long-term strategy.

That said, he is clearly cautious. Valuations are elevated, especially in speculative areas. Public-sector debt, not private debt, is the real concern. With persistent deficits and sticky inflation, Noble believes the long end of the bond market is signaling risk, and rising long-term rates could eventually pressure equities — particularly high-valuation growth and tech stocks.

He also warned that markets have become overly concentrated in a small number of AI-driven mega-caps. Index investors may not realize how much risk they are taking simply by owning cap-weighted benchmarks.

Why George Is Looking Outside Tech

Noble is not “anti-AI,” but he is skeptical of the return on investment narrative. He pointed to examples like Oracle, where AI enthusiasm briefly drove the stock higher, only for gains to reverse as debt issuance and rising CDS spreads signaled market concern. His view: markets will eventually stop rewarding companies just for spending more on AI.

As a result, Noble prefers areas of the market that are:

• Under-owned
• Cash-generative
• Less dependent on narrative enthusiasm

That leads him to energy and real assets.

George Noble’s 3 Stock Recommendations

George emphasized these names are representative vehicles for his view — the core bet is the energy setup itself, not that he has some hidden “edge” about each company. He also implicitly treated them as a risk ladder (low → medium → high).

1) Schlumberger (SLB) — “Bread-and-Butter / Institutional Core”

What it is: The large, global oilfield services leader (SLB).How George framed it: “They’re number one in almost everything… great company.”

Why he likes it now:

• Down a lot, starting to act better. He flagged that the stock had been weak but is improving — a key sign for him that the market may be starting to re-price the space.
• Go-to name for big flows. His practical point: if investors rotate into energy services, large institutions need liquid, scalable exposure. SLB is one of the first places that money can go.
• Oil services are improving vs oil itself. He referenced the oil service index making a meaningful relative move (an 8-month relative high in his telling), suggesting services may be leading the turn.
• He blends fundamentals + technicals. He explicitly said he doesn’t ignore price action: if the fundamentals look good but relative strength stays bad, he gets skeptical. SLB is attractive partly because the tape is improving.

How to describe SLB to viewers:A low-drama way to express an energy rebound—more “indexable quality” than deep speculation.

2) Cenovus Energy (CVE) — “Integrated, Cash-Flow Profile + Growth”

What it is: A major Canadian integrated oil & gas company.Why he picked it:

• Superior growth profile vs many peers (his words).
• Integration upside from a recent acquisition: MEG Energy.
• As an integrated operator, it typically provides a more balanced exposure than pure upstream names (not his explicit words, but consistent with why someone chooses an integrated over a pure E&P).

How George positioned it:

• He directly called it the safest of the three ideas on a risk/reward basis.
• He framed it as a “something new / differentiated” way to stay in the game while much of the market is obsessed with tech.

How to describe CVE to viewers:A more conservative energy idea with scale and an integration story, aimed at investors who want energy exposure without the higher cyclicality of offshore drillers.

3) Valaris (VAL) — “Offshore = Higher Beta”

What it is: A major offshore drilling contractor.

Why he likes it:

• He sees offshore as increasingly important for incremental global supply (“where a lot of additional production has to come from”).
• He believes VAL is well run, and positioned so that if oil prices rise, the stock has enough beta to respond meaningfully.
• He explicitly states services have higher beta than producers because the price of their products/services can move more than the commodity itself.

His risk framing:This is the “spicier” name — higher upside potential, but clearly higher cyclicality and sensitivity to the cycle.

How to describe VAL to viewers:A levered way to express the energy view — higher upside if the cycle turns, but not for low-risk investors.

How George Ranked Them by Risk

• Safest: Cenovus (CVE)
• Next: Schlumberger (SLB)
• "Spiciest": Valaris (VAL)

Why He Thinks Energy Could Work in 2026

• Energy is cheap relative to other assets (he referenced the gold-to-oil ratio being unusually high).
• Positioning/sentiment is bearish, so bad news may already be priced in.
• If reflation continues and/or oil prices rise without a recession, energy could outperform.

Portfolio Perspective

Beyond individual stocks, Noble shared a broader allocation insight: in today’s environment, traditional bond exposure may not provide the diversification investors expect. He suggested replacing part of a standard bond allocation with gold, arguing that gold is a better hedge against debasement, reflation, and rising long-term rates.

Final Thought

Noble closed by advising investors — especially younger ones — to focus on timeless principles rather than hype. Read the classics, understand incentives, and don’t confuse speculation with investing. In a market dominated by narratives, he believes boring, cash-generative assets may once again prove to be the most profitable.

Primary Disclaimer

The information presented is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or official recommendation. The views expressed are those of the speakers and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.